Introduction
Dundee travel to the Marbill Coaches Stadium on Saturday, as they take on St Mirren, in what should be an entertaining battle between both teams.
Dundee head into this one off the back of a hard-fought 2-2 draw with Rangers, whilst St Mirren were beaten by Aberdeen 3-1 last time out.
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Match Preview
Dundee and St Mirren both came away with very different results in their most recent Scottish Premiership games. Dundee drew 2-2 with Rangers, which caught the eye.
Bradley Fink gave them the lead on 37 minutes before goals from Badredine Bouanani and Nicolas Raskin turned the game around. Callum Jones then levelled on 69 minutes to earn Dundee a point.
St Mirren were beaten 3-1 by Aberdeen after falling behind to a Bradley Lyons goal in the second minute. Eseosa Sule equalised three minutes before half-time, and Aberdeen then pulled away after the break through Kevin Nisbet and Ayoub Mouloua.
In both games, Dundee and St Mirren finished on the wrong side of the expected goals count. Expected goals, or xG, measures how likely each shot was to go in. Rangers ended on 2.31 to Dundee’s 1.55, while Aberdeen finished on 3.14 against St Mirren’s 1.46.
Dundee Form Guide
Dundee spent much of the second half against Rangers without the ball. Their possession dropped from 45% before the break to 28% after it.
That meant a busy afternoon for Dundee goalkeeper, Owen Goodman. He faced eight shots on target and made six saves, all of them after half-time, and four of those were reflex saves.
At the other end, Dundee made their chances count. Bradley Fink had two shots, put both on target and scored with a left-foot effort worth 0.41 xG.
Callum Jones’s equaliser came from a chance worth 0.20 xG. The back line also held up well in the air, with Dundee winning 32 of their 54 aerial duels. Ryan Astley added 18 recoveries and 10 clearances in the stalemate with Rangers.
St Mirren Form Guide
St Mirren had most of the ball against Aberdeen, finishing with 65% possession and completing 440 of their 529 passes.
Their best spell came in the first half. Killian Phillips had two shots in the 16th minute, and his 0.68 xG was the highest in the St Mirren side. St Mirren reached half-time on 1.22 xG to Aberdeen’s 0.34.
After the break, St Mirren added only 0.25 xG while Aberdeen generated 2.80, with Kevin Nisbet responsible for 2.17 of that. Jacob Chapman saved a penalty from Nisbet on 58 minutes, though Nisbet scored with his next shot in the same minute.
Eseosa Sule hit the target with all three of his shots and scored from a chance worth 0.14 xG. Ismeal Kabia was the most direct threat, completing six of his eight dribbles and taking six touches in the Aberdeen penalty area.
Dundee v St Mirren Key Duels
The battle in the air could shape this game. Much of Dundee’s route forward against Rangers ran through their front two.
Owen Goodman’s distribution beyond his own third reached Bradley Fink nine times and Ashley Hay eight times, and Hay won nine of his 14 aerial duels.
Dealing with that will fall largely to St Mirren’s centre-backs. Alexander Gogic won five of his seven aerial duels against Aberdeen and led his side with 17 recoveries, while Marcus Fraser won two of three. As a team, though, St Mirren lost the aerial contest, with Aberdeen winning 15 of the 26 duels.
The two sides also defended very differently last weekend. St Mirren’s PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) was 7.8. That means they made a defensive action for roughly every eight Aberdeen passes. Dundee’s figure against Rangers was 16.0. On the flank, Wright is likely to face Kabia, who won 13 of his 24 duels at Aberdeen.
Conclusion
It’s a great opportunity for Dundee to continue their strong start to the season, where they could potentially move up to third in the Scottish Premiership if results go their way this weekend.
It’s a great opportunity to build on a hard-fought draw with Rangers, as they come up against a St Mirren side that have lost their last five league matches.
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