Introduction
Dundee will be looking to get back to winning ways this week, as they host St. Johnstone at Dens Park.
Three points separate both teams, who head into this game off the back of narrow defeats at the weekend.
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Match Preview
Dundee head into this fixture on the back of a 1-2 home defeat by Hibernian on 30 August. Martin Boyle put the visitors ahead in the first half, before Callum Wright doubled the lead early in the second.
Hibernian led by two goals for over 20 minutes before Joe Westley’s header seven minutes from time gave the scoreline a different look without changing the result.
St. Johnstone were beaten 2-1 at Hearts the previous day. James Wilson headed the home side in front inside ten minutes and a second goal followed just before half-time when Enes Alić turned the ball into his own net. Ruari Paton pulled one back three minutes into the second half, but St. Johnstone could not find an equaliser.
Dundee Form Guide
Dundee’s expected goals total from the Hibernian game was 1.50, a figure that rates each shot’s chance of scoring based on its position and situation, some way below Hibernian’s 2.70.
Much of that gap opened after the break, when Dundee’s pressing dropped off. Their passes allowed per defensive action, a measure of pressing intensity, read 24.6, meaning Hibernian were allowed almost 25 passes for every Dundee challenge.
The one moment of real quality came from Joe Westley, whose 83rd-minute header carried an xG of 0.87, the highest-value chance of the match.
Dundee were far more competitive without the ball than with it. Ryan Astley won all six of his aerial duels and Owen Bevan won six of his seven, part of a team performance that saw Dundee win 19 of their 30 aerial duels despite having only 41% of possession.
St. Johnstone Form Guide
St. Johnstone’s attacking output rose after the interval at Hearts, climbing from 0.30 attacks per minute in the first half to 0.42 in the second, above Hearts’ own second-half figure of 0.36. Their expected goals total for the match finished at 1.20 against Hearts’ 1.87. Ruari Paton was their leading threat, scoring with a left-footed strike three minutes into the second half and forcing another save from Steward twelve minutes later with a shot rated at 0.22 in expected goals.
Josh Fowler also headed a first-half chance over, from an effort rated 0.25 in expected goals.
Duels were a persistent difficulty. St. Johnstone won 60 of the match’s 135 duels and just 8 of their 27 aerial contests, with Zach Mitchell beaten in every aerial duel he contested. Jason Holt and Cheick Diabaté carried much of the passing load in behind, completing well over 90 accurate passes between them, but St. Johnstone rarely turned that control into shots on target.
Tactical Insight
One area to watch is the aerial battle. Dundee won 19 of their 30 aerial duels against Hibernian, with Ryan Astley winning all six of his and Owen Bevan six of his seven. St. Johnstone, meanwhile, won just 8 of their 27 aerial duels at Hearts, with Zach Mitchell beaten in all three of his.
Both matches also produced a goal from a header. Joe Westley’s finish for Dundee carried an xG of 0.87, and James Wilson’s opener for Hearts, headed in at a corner, was rated at 0.29. If Dundee can work the ball into similar areas again, and St. Johnstone’s aerial numbers do not improve, crosses and set plays look like a route to goal for the home side.
Conclusion
On the numbers from their last outings, Dundee produced the single highest-value chance of the two matches through Joe Westley’s header, while St. Johnstone showed enough going forward through Ruari Paton to suggest they will carry a threat of their own.
Neither side controlled the aerial battle last time out, and that shortfall looks the most obvious thing for both to address before kick-off.
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