Dundee v Aberdeen: Statistical Preview
Introduction
Following a narrow 1-0 defeat away to champions Celtic, Dundee welcome Aberdeen to Dens Park for our opening home game of the Scottish Premiership season.
We’ll have weekly previews courtesy of the experts on Andy’s Bet Club, looking into the numbers behind each side’s recent performance.
Ahead of Saturday afternoon’s fixture with Aberdeen, we look back at how both sides fared on the opening weekend of the season.
Andy’s Bet Club also publishes free football tips each week, all backed with expert insight and research.
Match Preview
Dundee head into this game off the back of a tight 1-0 defeat at Celtic on Monday. They had 37% possession, registering two shots on target from nine shots in total, across the 90 minutes.
Aberdeen travel to Dundee after a dramatic opening-day win. They beat Hearts 2-1 at Pittodrie after falling behind to an Oisin McEntee goal in the first half.
Lewis Mayo levelled in the 90th minute, before Kevin Nisbet added a second from the penalty spot deep into added time, completing a dramatic turnaround for Stephen Robinson’s side.
Dundee Form Guide
Dundee dug in without the ball at Celtic Park.
The hosts completed 86% of their passes to Dundee’s 79%, and had a PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 8.8, meaning Celtic won the ball back on average every 8.8 Dundee passes.
Dundee’s PPDA was 19.3, establishing a foothold in the game with a strong shape out of possession.
Owen Bevan stood firm at the back, winning eight of his nine duels and also getting on the end of a 0.31 xG chance with a header from a corner.
Ryan Astley was heavily involved in possession, completing 34 of his 38 passes.
Owen Goodman made three saves, including one reflex stop, but was beaten by a Benjamin Nygren headed finish in the second half after being consistently tested with crosses into his box.
Aberdeen Form Guide
Aberdeen had a PPDA of 8.6 in their win over Hearts. Their visitors’ off-the-ball intensity was similar, as Hearts’ PPDA was at 8.8.
Nesta Guinness-Walker hit the ground running at left back for Aberdeen, winning 13 of his 14 duels.
Kevin Nisbet was Aberdeen’s biggest threat, posting an xG of 1.10 from four attempts, including scoring the decisive penalty in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
Tactical Insight
One area to watch is the battle in the air.
Dundee won 23 of their 57 aerial duels against Celtic (40%), and were targeted in the wide areas, with Celtic completing seven of their 23 crosses into the box.
Aberdeen, on the other hand, showed real aerial prowess against Hearts, led by Dan Happe – who won six of his eight aerial duels and Nisbet, who won two from four up front.
If Aberdeen look to test Dundee from crosses and set pieces, as they did against Hearts, improving on that 40% win rate from the Celtic game will be key.
Conclusion
There were plenty of Dundee positives to build on from their trip to the reigning champions.
Aberdeen’s stoppage-time win was built on a resolute defensive display in a game they were second-best in for extended periods.
Set pieces could be crucial in this evenly-matched encounter.
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